Premier Division (Ireland) · Thu, Oct 8 · 19:00 · Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United
Likeliest: Shamrock Rovers win · 68%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 67%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shamrock Rovers68%67%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Drogheda United11%12%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 88% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 33% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shamrock Rovers
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 18 · v Waterford FC (H)3-2
- Sep 11 · at St. Patrick's Athletic (A)0-2
- Sep 4 · v Shelbourne (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Derry City (A)3-3
- Aug 27 · at KuPS (A)0-1
Drogheda United
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 18 · at Bohemian FC (A)1-2
- Sep 14 · at Shelbourne (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Sligo Rovers (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · v Dundalk FC (H)2-3
- Aug 21 · v St. Patrick's Athletic (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Shamrock Rovers | Drogheda United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.