Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 23 · 19:00 · Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers
Likeliest: Shamrock Rovers win · 81%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 81% for the home win. The market says 78%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shamrock Rovers81%78%+4
OursMarket
Draw12%14%−2
OursMarket
Sligo Rovers6%8%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 19% | 22% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 93% | 90% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shamrock Rovers
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 16 · at Galway United (A)0-2
- Oct 12 · v Bohemian FC (H)2-1
- Oct 8 · v Drogheda United (H)3-1
- Sep 18 · v Waterford FC (H)3-2
- Sep 11 · at St. Patrick's Athletic (A)0-2
Sligo Rovers
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Dundalk FC (H)1-1
- Oct 9 · at Shelbourne (A)1-5
- Sep 19 · v St. Patrick's Athletic (H)0-1
- Sep 14 · v Galway United (H)1-3
- Sep 11 · at Drogheda United (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Shamrock Rovers | Sligo Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 0-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.