Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 18 · 19:00 · Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford FC
Likeliest: Shamrock Rovers win · 67%
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shamrock Rovers67%65%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%0
OursMarket
Waterford FC13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 35% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shamrock Rovers
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 11 · at St. Patrick's Athletic (A)0-2
- Sep 4 · v Shelbourne (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Derry City (A)3-3
- Aug 27 · at KuPS (A)0-1
- Aug 20 · v KuPS (H)1-1
Waterford FC
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Sep 14 · v Derry City (H)2-2
- Sep 11 · v Dundalk FC (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at St. Patrick's Athletic (A)2-0
- Aug 21 · at Sligo Rovers (A)0-0
- Aug 9 · v Bohemian FC (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Shamrock Rovers | Waterford FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 3-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.