Super League (China) · Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 · Shandong Taishan vs Shenzhen Peng City
Likeliest: Shandong Taishan win · 51%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shandong Taishan51%59%−8
OursMarket
Draw25%21%+4
OursMarket
Shenzhen Peng City24%20%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 67% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 63% | −13 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 80% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 41% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 75% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shandong Taishan
WinWinWinLossWin
- Aug 28 · at Shanghai Shenhua (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · at Qingdao West Coast (A)0-2
- Aug 14 · v Qingdao Hainiu (H)3-1
- Aug 9 · v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (H)2-1
- Aug 1 · at Shanghai Port (A)1-0
Shenzhen Peng City
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Aug 28 · v Shanghai Port (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Zhejiang (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Liaoning Tieren FC (A)2-1
- Aug 7 · at Beijing Guoan (A)0-4
- Aug 2 · v Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Shandong Taishan | Shenzhen Peng City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.