Super League (China) · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 · Shandong Taishan vs Zhejiang
Likeliest: Shandong Taishan win · 50%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shandong Taishan50%53%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+2
OursMarket
Zhejiang27%26%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 74% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 67% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shandong Taishan
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · at Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Shenzhen Peng City (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Shanghai Shenhua (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · at Qingdao West Coast (A)0-2
- Aug 14 · v Qingdao Hainiu (H)3-1
Zhejiang
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 9 · v Shanghai Port (H)2-4
- Sep 18 · v Wuhan Three Towns (H)4-1
- Sep 6 · at Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Yunnan Yukun (H)6-0
- Aug 22 · at Shenzhen Peng City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Shandong Taishan | Zhejiang |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.