Super League (China) · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:00 · Shanghai Port vs Chengdu Rongcheng
Likeliest: Shanghai Port win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shanghai Port46%47%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Chengdu Rongcheng28%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 64% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shanghai Port
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 13 · v Daejeon Hana Citizen (H)1-1
- Oct 9 · at Zhejiang (A)4-2
- Sep 15 · at Ratchaburi (A)6-4
- Sep 5 · v Beijing Guoan (H)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Shenzhen Peng City (A)1-0
Chengdu Rongcheng
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Liaoning Tieren FC (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Shanghai Shenhua (H)4-5
- Aug 15 · at Zhejiang (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Shanghai Port | Chengdu Rongcheng |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.