AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Oct 13 · 10:00 · Shanghai Port vs Daejeon Hana Citizen
Likeliest: Shanghai Port win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shanghai Port44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Daejeon Hana Citizen30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shanghai Port
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 9 · at Zhejiang (A)4-2
- Sep 15 · at Ratchaburi (A)6-4
- Sep 5 · v Beijing Guoan (H)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Shenzhen Peng City (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Qingdao Hainiu (H)2-1
Daejeon Hana Citizen
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 9 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Incheon United (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Pohang Steelers (H)2-2
- Sep 9 · v FC Anyang (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Shanghai Port | Daejeon Hana Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 2-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.