Super League (China) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:35 · Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun
Likeliest: Shanghai Shenhua win · 63%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shanghai Shenhua63%61%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Yunnan Yukun19%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.7 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shanghai Shenhua
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 17 · v Tampines Rovers (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (A)3-1
- Aug 28 · v Shandong Taishan (H)2-3
- Aug 22 · at Chengdu Rongcheng (A)5-4
- Aug 18 · v Beijing Guoan (H)0-3
Yunnan Yukun
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 6 · v Liaoning Tieren FC (H)5-0
- Aug 29 · at Zhejiang (A)0-6
- Aug 22 · at Beijing Guoan (A)3-3
- Aug 15 · v Dalian Yingbo FC (H)3-1
- Aug 8 · v Chengdu Rongcheng (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Shanghai Shenhua | Yunnan Yukun |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.