V-League (Vietnam) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 · SHB Đà Nẵng vs Hải Phòng
Likeliest: SHB Đà Nẵng win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SHB Đà Nẵng46%49%−4
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+3
OursMarket
Hải Phòng26%25%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 67% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SHB Đà Nẵng
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Hoàng Anh Gia Lai (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · v Nam Định (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at Đông Á Thanh Hóa (A)2-3
- Jun 7 · v Đông Á Thanh Hoá (H)4-0
- Jun 7 · v Đông Á Thanh Hóa (H)4-0
Hải Phòng
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Đông Á Thanh Hóa (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Hoàng Anh Gia Lai (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v Phù Đổng Ninh Bình (H)1-4
- Jun 7 · v Thép Xanh Nam Định (H)1-1
- Jun 7 · v Nam Định (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | SHB Đà Nẵng | Hải Phòng |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.