V-League (Vietnam) · Fri, Sep 11 · 11:00 · SHB Đà Nẵng vs Nam Định
Likeliest: SHB Đà Nẵng win · 41%
We make it 51% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SHB Đà Nẵng41%20%+22
OursMarket
Draw28%23%+6
OursMarket
Nam Định31%58%−27
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 56% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 55% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 42% | +27 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 80% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 77% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 26% | +32 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SHB Đà Nẵng
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 6 · at Đông Á Thanh Hóa (A)2-3
- Jun 7 · v Đông Á Thanh Hóa (H)4-0
- Jun 7 · v Đông Á Thanh Hoá (H)4-0
- May 31 · at Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (A)0-0
- May 23 · v Hải Phòng (H)2-0
Nam Định
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Sep 6 · v Hoàng Anh Gia Lai (H)4-0
- Jun 7 · at Hải Phòng (A)1-1
- Jun 7 · at Hải Phòng (A)1-1
- May 31 · v Sông Lam Nghệ An (H)3-0
- May 31 · v Sông Lam Nghệ An (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | SHB Đà Nẵng | Nam Định |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.