Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 15 · 16:30 · Sheffield United vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: Sheffield United win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 38%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield United50%38%+11
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Birmingham City24%33%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 67% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 62% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 54% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield United
WinLossLossWinWin
- Aug 9 · at Mansfield Town (A)3-0
- May 2 · at Derby County (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v Preston North End (H)2-3
- Apr 22 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-3
- Apr 18 · at Watford (A)2-0
Birmingham City
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Aug 8 · at Swansea City (A)1-0
- May 2 · at Portsmouth (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Bristol City (H)2-1
- Apr 22 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Hull City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sheffield United | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Sheffield United form·Birmingham City form·Head-to-head record