Championship (England) · Tue, Sep 1 · 18:45 · Sheffield United vs Bolton Wanderers
Likeliest: Sheffield United win · 50%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield United50%57%−7
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Bolton Wanderers26%19%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 53% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 81% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 43% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 75% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield United
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Aug 29 · at Cardiff City (A)2-2
- Aug 25 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Swansea City (A)0-0
- Aug 15 · v Birmingham City (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · at Mansfield Town (A)3-0
Bolton Wanderers
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Aug 29 · v Lincoln City (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)0-0
- Aug 15 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
- Aug 8 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-1
- May 24 · v Stockport County (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Sheffield United | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.