Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:30 · Sheffield United vs Derby County
Likeliest: Sheffield United win · 52%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield United52%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Derby County22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield United
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Oct 14 · at Portsmouth (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · v Lincoln City (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Stoke City (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Fleetwood Town (A)0-1
Derby County
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Stoke City (H)0-1
- Oct 14 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-4
- Oct 10 · v Wrexham (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Burnley (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Birmingham City (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Sheffield United | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.