Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Sheffield United vs Lincoln City
Likeliest: Sheffield United win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield United43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Lincoln City29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield United
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 19 · at Stoke City (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Fleetwood Town (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Wolverhampton (H)0-1
- Sep 8 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Norwich City (H)1-3
Lincoln City
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 19 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Preston North End (A)1-0
- Sep 8 · at Bournemouth (A)0-4
- Sep 5 · v Southampton (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sheffield United | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.