Championship (England) · Wed, Nov 26 · 19:45 · Sheffield United vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Sheffield United win · 40%
We make it 66% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield United40%52%−13
OursMarket
Draw32%26%+5
OursMarket
Portsmouth29%21%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 48% | −14 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 79% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 48% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 74% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 71% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield United
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Nov 23 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)3-0
- Nov 8 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
- Nov 4 · at Coventry City (A)1-3
- Nov 1 · v Derby County (H)1-3
- Oct 24 · at Preston North End (A)2-3
Portsmouth
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Nov 22 · v Millwall (H)3-1
- Nov 8 · at Hull City (A)2-3
- Nov 5 · v Wrexham (H)0-0
- Nov 1 · at Birmingham City (A)0-4
- Oct 25 · v Stoke City (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Sheffield United | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.