Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 6 · 15:00 · Sheffield United vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Sheffield United win · 54%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield United54%45%+9
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−6
OursMarket
Stoke City24%26%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 46% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 55% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 63% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield United
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Nov 29 · at Leicester City (A)3-2
- Nov 26 · v Portsmouth (H)3-0
- Nov 23 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)3-0
- Nov 8 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
- Nov 4 · at Coventry City (A)1-3
Stoke City
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Nov 29 · v Hull City (H)1-2
- Nov 25 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Leicester City (A)1-2
- Nov 8 · v Coventry City (H)0-1
- Nov 4 · at Oxford United (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Sheffield United | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.