Championship (England) · Fri, Apr 3 · 14:00 · Sheffield United vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Sheffield United win · 55%
A 55% home win. The market says 49%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield United55%49%+6
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Swansea City21%25%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 75% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 51% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 67% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield United
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Mar 21 · v Wrexham (H)1-2
- Mar 14 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
- Mar 11 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Mar 7 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-1
- Feb 28 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-0
Swansea City
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Mar 21 · v Coventry City (H)0-3
- Mar 13 · at Wrexham (A)0-2
- Mar 10 · at Portsmouth (A)2-1
- Mar 7 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Feb 28 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Sheffield United | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.