League One (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon
Likeliest: Sheffield Wednesday win · 55%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield Wednesday55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
AFC Wimbledon20%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield Wednesday
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Huddersfield Town (A)2-2
- Oct 6 · v Sunderland U21 (H)2-0
- Sep 22 · at Salford City (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Stockport County (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Wigan Athletic (H)0-0
AFC Wimbledon
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)1-2
- Oct 6 · v Barnet (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Cambridge United (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Sheffield Wednesday | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.