EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 14:00 · Sheffield Wednesday vs Bolton Wanderers
Likeliest: Bolton Wanderers win · 52%
A 52% away win. The market says 45%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield Wednesday23%30%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%25%−1
OursMarket
Bolton Wanderers52%45%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 60% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 55% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 70% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 40% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield Wednesday
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- May 2 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Oxford United (A)1-4
- Apr 22 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-1
- Apr 18 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Coventry City (A)0-0
Bolton Wanderers
DrawLossWinWinWin
- May 24 · v Stockport County (H)4-1
- May 14 · at Bradford City (A)1-0
- May 9 · v Bradford City (H)1-0
- May 2 · v Luton Town (H)2-3
- Apr 25 · at Bradford City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sheffield Wednesday | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.