League One (England) · Thu, Aug 20 · 19:00 · Sheffield Wednesday vs Bradford City
Likeliest: Bradford City win · 45%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield Wednesday32%39%−7
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Bradford City45%34%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 49% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 54% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 66% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 61% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 53% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield Wednesday
LossLossWinWinWin
- Aug 15 · at Leyton Orient (A)2-1
- Aug 8 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)1-0
- May 2 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Oxford United (A)1-4
- Apr 22 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-1
Bradford City
WinLossLossWinWin
- Aug 15 · v Peterborough United (H)2-0
- Aug 8 · v Rochdale (H)2-0
- May 14 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)0-1
- May 9 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)0-1
- May 2 · at Exeter City (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sheffield Wednesday | Bradford City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.