Championship (England) · Mon, Dec 15 · 20:00 · Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby County
Likeliest: Sheffield Wednesday win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 29%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield Wednesday41%29%+11
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−3
OursMarket
Derby County33%41%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 44% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 59% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 71% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 42% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield Wednesday
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Dec 9 · at Watford (A)1-1
- Nov 29 · v Preston North End (H)2-3
- Nov 26 · at Millwall (A)0-1
- Nov 23 · v Sheffield United (H)0-3
- Nov 8 · at Southampton (A)1-3
Derby County
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Dec 10 · v Millwall (H)1-1
- Dec 6 · v Leicester City (H)1-3
- Nov 29 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-2
- Nov 25 · at Swansea City (A)2-1
- Nov 22 · v Watford (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Sheffield Wednesday | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-8 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Sheffield Wednesday form·Derby County form·Head-to-head record