Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 14 · 15:00 · Sheffield Wednesday vs Millwall
Likeliest: Millwall win · 45%
A 31% home win. The market says 11%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield Wednesday31%11%+20
OursMarket
Draw25%20%+4
OursMarket
Millwall45%69%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 43% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 31% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 89% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 80% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 14% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield Wednesday
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Feb 8 · at Swansea City (A)0-4
- Feb 3 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)0-1
- Jan 31 · v Wrexham (H)0-1
- Jan 24 · at Bristol City (A)0-2
- Jan 20 · v Birmingham City (H)0-2
Millwall
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Feb 7 · at Wrexham (A)2-0
- Jan 31 · v Sheffield United (H)1-1
- Jan 24 · v Charlton Athletic (H)4-0
- Jan 20 · at Coventry City (A)1-2
- Jan 17 · at Watford (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Sheffield Wednesday | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-1-9 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-7 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.