League One (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Sheffield Wednesday vs Stockport County
Likeliest: Stockport County win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield Wednesday31%33%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Stockport County42%42%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield Wednesday
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v Wigan Athletic (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Peterborough United (A)2-1
- Sep 1 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Bromley (H)7-2
- Aug 25 · v Wolverhampton (H)0-2
Stockport County
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 12 · v Leicester City (H)3-4
- Sep 5 · at Wigan Athletic (A)4-0
- Sep 2 · at Luton Town (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)5-1
- Aug 22 · v Blackpool (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Sheffield Wednesday | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.