Championship (England) · Tue, Mar 10 · 19:45 · Sheffield Wednesday vs Watford
Likeliest: Watford win · 48%
A 28% home win. The market says 14%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield Wednesday28%14%+14
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+3
OursMarket
Watford48%65%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 48% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 35% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 86% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 18% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield Wednesday
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Mar 7 · at Derby County (A)1-2
- Feb 28 · v Southampton (H)1-3
- Feb 25 · at Norwich City (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · at Sheffield United (A)1-2
- Feb 14 · v Millwall (H)1-2
Watford
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Feb 27 · at Bristol City (A)2-1
- Feb 24 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-2
- Feb 21 · v Derby County (H)2-0
- Feb 14 · at Preston North End (A)2-2
- Feb 7 · at Southampton (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Sheffield Wednesday | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-0-10 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-8 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.