League One (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Sheffield Wednesday vs Wigan Athletic
Likeliest: Sheffield Wednesday win · 56%
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield Wednesday56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Wigan Athletic20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield Wednesday
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 5 · at Peterborough United (A)2-1
- Sep 1 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Bromley (H)7-2
- Aug 25 · v Wolverhampton (H)0-2
- Aug 20 · v Bradford City (H)0-1
Wigan Athletic
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 5 · v Stockport County (H)0-4
- Sep 2 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)3-1
- Aug 30 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Leyton Orient (H)0-2
- Aug 18 · v Aston Villa U21 (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Sheffield Wednesday | Wigan Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.