EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Aug 25 · 18:45 · Sheffield Wednesday vs Wolverhampton
Likeliest: Sheffield Wednesday win · 41%
We make it 59% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sheffield Wednesday41%19%+22
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+3
OursMarket
Wolverhampton32%57%−26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 53% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 43% | +26 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 81% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 76% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 25% | +32 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sheffield Wednesday
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 20 · v Bradford City (H)0-1
- Aug 15 · at Leyton Orient (A)2-1
- Aug 8 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)1-0
- May 2 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Oxford United (A)1-4
Wolverhampton
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Aug 22 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
- Aug 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-2
- Aug 7 · v Port Vale (H)3-0
- May 24 · at Burnley (A)1-1
- May 24 · at Burnley (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sheffield Wednesday | Wolverhampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.