Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 13 · 18:45 · Shelbourne vs AFC Ajax
Likeliest: AFC Ajax win · 58%
A 18% home win. The market says 7%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shelbourne18%7%+12
OursMarket
Draw24%13%+11
OursMarket
AFC Ajax58%81%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 68% | −22 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 19% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 93% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 87% | −11 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 8% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shelbourne
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 9 · v St. Patrick's Athletic (H)1-2
- Aug 6 · at AFC Ajax (A)1-3
- Aug 2 · at Waterford FC (A)0-1
- Jul 30 · at Nõmme Kalju (A)1-2
- Jul 23 · v Nõmme Kalju (H)5-2
AFC Ajax
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Aug 9 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-0
- Aug 6 · v Shelbourne (H)3-1
- Jul 30 · v FK Vojvodina (H)4-1
- Jul 23 · at FK Vojvodina (A)4-1
- May 24 · v FC Utrecht (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Shelbourne | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.