Premier Division (Ireland) · Mon, Sep 14 · 18:45 · Shelbourne vs Drogheda United
Likeliest: Shelbourne win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shelbourne55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Drogheda United20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 73% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shelbourne
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 11 · v Derry City (H)0-1
- Sep 4 · at Shamrock Rovers (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Galway United (A)1-1
- Aug 13 · v AFC Ajax (H)2-2
- Aug 9 · v St. Patrick's Athletic (H)1-2
Drogheda United
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 11 · v Sligo Rovers (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · v Dundalk FC (H)2-3
- Aug 21 · v St. Patrick's Athletic (H)0-2
- Aug 7 · at Galway United (A)0-0
- Jul 31 · v Shamrock Rovers (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Shelbourne | Drogheda United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.