Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:45 · Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers
Likeliest: Shelbourne win · 70%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 70% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shelbourne70%68%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Sligo Rovers10%12%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 32% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 85% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shelbourne
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 25 · at Galway United (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Dundalk FC (A)3-2
- Sep 14 · v Drogheda United (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · v Derry City (H)0-1
- Sep 4 · at Shamrock Rovers (A)0-0
Sligo Rovers
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v St. Patrick's Athletic (H)0-1
- Sep 14 · v Galway United (H)1-3
- Sep 11 · at Drogheda United (A)0-2
- Aug 28 · at Bohemian FC (A)0-3
- Aug 21 · v Waterford FC (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Shelbourne | Sligo Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 0-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.