Super League (China) · Fri, Oct 9 · 11:35 · Shenzhen Peng City vs Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang
Likeliest: Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shenzhen Peng City29%31%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang42%42%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shenzhen Peng City
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 5 · at Shandong Taishan (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Shanghai Port (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Zhejiang (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Liaoning Tieren FC (A)2-1
- Aug 7 · at Beijing Guoan (A)0-4
Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · at Wuhan Three Towns (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Chengdu Rongcheng (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Liaoning Tieren FC (A)4-4
- Aug 15 · at Shanghai Shenhua (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Shenzhen Peng City | Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.