Super League (China) · Sat, Oct 24 · 07:30 · Shenzhen Peng City vs Shanghai Shenhua
Likeliest: Shanghai Shenhua win · 51%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shenzhen Peng City25%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Shanghai Shenhua51%47%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 38% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shenzhen Peng City
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Dalian Yingbo FC (A)1-3
- Oct 9 · v Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Shandong Taishan (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Shanghai Port (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Zhejiang (H)1-1
Shanghai Shenhua
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Wuhan Three Towns (A)3-1
- Oct 15 · at Svay Rieng FC (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Yunnan Yukun (H)7-1
- Sep 17 · v Tampines Rovers (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Shenzhen Peng City | Shanghai Shenhua |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.