J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 04:00 · Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka
Likeliest: Shimizu S-Pulse win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shimizu S-Pulse43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Gamba Osaka30%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shimizu S-Pulse
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · at Mito Hollyhock (A)2-1
- Oct 7 · v V-Varen Nagasaki (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v JEF United Chiba (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Avispa Fukuoka (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)1-3
Gamba Osaka
WinLossWinLossWin
- Oct 13 · at Newcastle Jets (A)3-1
- Oct 9 · at Kashima Antlers (A)0-2
- Sep 23 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)5-0
- Sep 20 · v Vissel Kobe (H)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Công An Hà Nội (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Shimizu S-Pulse | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.