J-League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia
Likeliest: Machida Zelvia win · 47%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shimizu S-Pulse22%26%−5
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+3
OursMarket
Machida Zelvia47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 74% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 37% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shimizu S-Pulse
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Gamba Osaka (H)2-2
- Oct 11 · at Mito Hollyhock (A)2-1
- Oct 7 · v V-Varen Nagasaki (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v JEF United Chiba (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Avispa Fukuoka (H)1-0
Machida Zelvia
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Avispa Fukuoka (H)3-0
- Oct 15 · at Tampines Rovers (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Kyoto Sanga FC (A)1-0
- Sep 23 · v Tochigi City FC (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | Shimizu S-Pulse | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 6-4-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.