Emperor Cup (Japan) · Wed, Oct 7 · 10:00 · Shimizu S-Pulse vs V-Varen Nagasaki
Likeliest: draw · 34%
Likely score: 1–1
A 34% draw. The market says 29%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shimizu S-Pulse33%41%−8
OursMarket
Draw34%29%+5
OursMarket
V-Varen Nagasaki33%30%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 59% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 71% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 58% | −8 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shimizu S-Pulse
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 19 · v JEF United Chiba (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Avispa Fukuoka (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)1-3
- Sep 2 · v FC Tokyo (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)0-1
V-Varen Nagasaki
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 19 · v Cerezo Osaka (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · at Vissel Kobe (A)1-3
- Sep 2 · v Gamba Osaka (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · v FC Tokyo (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Shimizu S-Pulse | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.