J2 League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 11 · 09:00 · Shonan Bellmare vs Albirex Niigata
Likeliest: Shonan Bellmare win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shonan Bellmare41%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Albirex Niigata28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shonan Bellmare
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 7 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-4
- Oct 3 · at Fujieda MYFC (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · at FC Imabari (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Blaublitz Akita (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Vanraure Hachinohe (A)1-0
Albirex Niigata
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 3 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Blaublitz Akita (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Jubilo Iwata (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Montedio Yamagata (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Yokohama FC (A)0-5
| Last 10 games | Shonan Bellmare | Albirex Niigata |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.