J2 League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Shonan Bellmare vs Iwaki FC
Likeliest: Shonan Bellmare win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shonan Bellmare44%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Iwaki FC27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shonan Bellmare
DrawDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at Kataller Toyama (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Albirex Niigata (H)1-1
- Oct 7 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-4
- Oct 3 · at Fujieda MYFC (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · at FC Imabari (A)0-0
Iwaki FC
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)5-0
- Oct 11 · v Blaublitz Akita (H)1-0
- Oct 7 · at Sanfrecce Hiroshima (A)0-4
- Oct 4 · at Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Vegalta Sendai (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Shonan Bellmare | Iwaki FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-7-2 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.