J2 League (Japan) · Tue, Nov 3 · 05:00 · Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu
Likeliest: Sagan Tosu win · 51%
Likely scores: 0–1 13% · 1–2 13% · 1–1 13%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shonan Bellmare20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Sagan Tosu51%49%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 46% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 33% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shonan Bellmare
DrawDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 31 · at Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (A)0-1
- Oct 25 · v Tochigi City FC (H)2-1
- Oct 21 · v Iwaki FC (H)1-1
- Oct 17 · at Kataller Toyama (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Albirex Niigata (H)1-1
Sagan Tosu
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 31 · at Jubilo Iwata (A)0-2
- Oct 25 · v Vanraure Hachinohe (H)2-0
- Oct 21 · at Albirex Niigata (A)1-2
- Oct 17 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Shonan Bellmare | Sagan Tosu |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 0-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.