League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:30 · Shrewsbury Town vs Bristol Rovers
Likeliest: Bristol Rovers win · 44%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shrewsbury Town29%30%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%29%−1
OursMarket
Bristol Rovers44%41%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shrewsbury Town
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Exeter City (H)0-1
- Oct 6 · v Stockport County (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Grimsby Town (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Colchester United (H)2-2
- Sep 22 · at Tranmere Rovers (A)0-1
Bristol Rovers
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Barnet (H)1-3
- Oct 6 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)1-4
- Oct 3 · at Crewe Alexandra (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v Exeter City (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Gillingham (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Shrewsbury Town | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.