League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Shrewsbury Town vs Exeter City
Likeliest: Shrewsbury Town win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shrewsbury Town39%42%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Exeter City31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 45% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shrewsbury Town
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 6 · v Stockport County (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Grimsby Town (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Colchester United (H)2-2
- Sep 22 · at Tranmere Rovers (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Crewe Alexandra (A)1-1
Exeter City
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 6 · v Oxford United (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Rotherham United (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Bristol Rovers (A)0-1
- Sep 22 · at Cheltenham Town (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Tranmere Rovers (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Shrewsbury Town | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.