Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:00 · Shrewsbury Town vs Stockport County
Likeliest: Stockport County win · 49%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 71% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shrewsbury Town23%24%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%24%+4
OursMarket
Stockport County49%53%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 71% | 56% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 76% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 31% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 2.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shrewsbury Town
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 3 · at Grimsby Town (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Colchester United (H)2-2
- Sep 22 · at Tranmere Rovers (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Crewe Alexandra (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Northampton Town (H)2-0
Stockport County
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 26 · v Peterborough United (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Leicester City (H)3-4
- Sep 5 · at Wigan Athletic (A)4-0
- Sep 2 · at Luton Town (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Shrewsbury Town | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.