Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Mar 12 · 20:00 · Sigma Olomouc vs FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: Sigma Olomouc win · 51%
We make it 68% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sigma Olomouc51%22%+29
OursMarket
Draw21%26%−4
OursMarket
FSV Mainz 0528%53%−25
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 50% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 52% | +16 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 47% | +25 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 78% | −29 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 29% | +36 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sigma Olomouc
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Mar 7 · at Jablonec (A)2-1
- Mar 1 · v Bohemians 1905 (H)1-0
- Feb 26 · at Lausanne Sport (A)2-1
- Feb 22 · at Teplice (A)3-1
- Feb 19 · v Lausanne Sport (H)1-1
FSV Mainz 05
WinLossDrawDrawDraw
- Mar 7 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-2
- Feb 28 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-1
- Feb 20 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-1
- Feb 13 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-4
- Feb 7 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Sigma Olomouc | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.