Superliga (Denmark) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 · Silkeborg IF vs AC Horsens
Likeliest: Silkeborg IF win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Silkeborg IF42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
AC Horsens30%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Silkeborg IF
LossDrawDrawDrawWin
- Sep 18 · at Lyngby (A)4-0
- Sep 13 · v Viborg FF (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at AGF (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v FC Midtjylland (H)1-1
- Aug 24 · at Brøndby IF (A)1-3
AC Horsens
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 20 · v AGF (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · at Naesby (A)3-2
- Sep 11 · at FC København (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Sønderjyske Fodbold (A)5-2
- Aug 28 · v Viborg FF (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Silkeborg IF | AC Horsens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.