ASEAN Championship (Asia) · Fri, Aug 7 · 13:00 · Singapore vs Indonesia
Likeliest: Singapore win · 37%
A 37% home win. The market says 19%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Singapore37%19%+17
OursMarket
Draw29%24%+5
OursMarket
Indonesia34%56%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 51% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 52% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 44% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 81% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 76% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 26% | +26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Singapore
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Jul 31 · at Vietnam (A)0-0
- Jul 27 · v East Timor (H)2-0
- Jul 24 · at Cambodia (A)2-1
- Jun 5 · v China (H)1-2
- Jun 5 · v China PR (H)1-2
Indonesia
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 3 · v Vietnam (H)0-3
- Jul 31 · at East Timor (A)3-0
- Jul 27 · v Cambodia (H)5-1
- Jun 9 · v Mozambique (H)1-0
- Jun 5 · v Oman (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Singapore | Indonesia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.