ASEAN Championship (Asia) · Sat, Aug 15 · 13:00 · Singapore vs Thailand
Likeliest: Singapore win · 37%
We make it 68% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Singapore37%14%+22
OursMarket
Draw31%26%+5
OursMarket
Thailand33%60%−27
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 45% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 40% | +27 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 86% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 74% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 19% | +34 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Singapore
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Aug 7 · v Indonesia (H)1-1
- Jul 31 · at Vietnam (A)0-0
- Jul 27 · v East Timor (H)2-0
- Jul 24 · at Cambodia (A)2-1
- Jun 5 · v China PR (H)1-2
Thailand
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Aug 8 · v Myanmar (H)2-0
- Aug 4 · at Philippines (A)1-0
- Aug 1 · v Malaysia (H)2-0
- Jul 25 · at Laos (A)5-0
- Jun 9 · at China PR (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Singapore | Thailand |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 80% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.