Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · Sint-Truidense VV vs FC Iberia 1999
Likeliest: Sint-Truidense VV win · 75%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 75% for the home win. The market says 71%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sint-Truidense VV75%71%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%18%−2
OursMarket
FC Iberia 19999%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 25% | 29% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sint-Truidense VV
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at KV Mechelen (A)3-4
- Sep 20 · v KVC Westerlo (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at SK Beveren (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v RAAL La Louvière (H)4-0
- Sep 2 · v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (H)0-3
FC Iberia 1999
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Aug 27 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)1-2
- Aug 20 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)0-4
- Aug 11 · v Larne FC (H)1-1
- Aug 4 · at Larne FC (A)0-0
- Jul 29 · at ŠK Slovan Bratislava (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sint-Truidense VV | FC Iberia 1999 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.