Belgian Cup (Belgium) · Sun, Oct 18 · 16:30 · Sint-Truidense VV vs Lommel SK
Likeliest: Sint-Truidense VV win · 65%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 69% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sint-Truidense VV65%62%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Lommel SK15%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 56% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 79% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 2.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sint-Truidense VV
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 15 · v FC Iberia 1999 (H)2-0
- Oct 11 · at KV Mechelen (A)3-4
- Sep 20 · v KVC Westerlo (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at SK Beveren (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v RAAL La Louvière (H)4-0
Lommel SK
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 9 · at SK Beveren (A)3-1
- Sep 26 · at KV Diksmuide Oostende (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v KV Mechelen (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · at Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (A)0-5
- Sep 4 · v Club Brugge KV (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Sint-Truidense VV | Lommel SK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.