1. Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · Sivasspor vs Sarıyer
Likeliest: Sivasspor win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sivasspor42%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Sarıyer28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sivasspor
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 13 · at Bandırmaspor (A)1-1
- Oct 9 · v Pendikspor (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at Keçiörengücü (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Muğlaspor (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Antalyaspor (A)2-1
Sarıyer
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 13 · v Bodrum FK (H)1-4
- Oct 9 · at Ümraniyespor (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Boluspor (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Bandırmaspor (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Keçiörengücü (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Sivasspor | Sarıyer |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.