Premier Division (South Africa) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:30 · Siwelele FC vs Polokwane City
Likeliest: draw · 37%
Likely score: 1–1
We make it 48% for both teams to score. The market says 42%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Siwelele FC36%39%−3
OursMarket
Draw37%33%+4
OursMarket
Polokwane City28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 35% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 42% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | 67% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Siwelele FC
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 13 · v Lamontville Golden Arrows (H)1-1
- Sep 9 · at Mamelodi Sundowns (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · at Kaizer Chiefs (A)2-3
- Aug 25 · v Chippa United (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · at AmaZulu FC (A)0-2
Polokwane City
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · v AmaZulu FC (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Kaizer Chiefs (H)1-1
- Sep 4 · at Marumo Gallants FC (A)2-2
- Aug 26 · v Milford FC (H)0-0
- Aug 15 · at Sekhukhune United (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Siwelele FC | Polokwane City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 1-7-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-6-0 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.