Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Fri, Oct 9 · 15:00 · SJK vs FC Lahti
Likeliest: FC Lahti win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SJK34%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
FC Lahti38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SJK
LossDrawDrawDrawWin
- Sep 18 · v IFK Mariehamn (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at FF Jaro (A)1-1
- Sep 8 · at TPS (A)0-0
- Aug 31 · at AC Oulu (A)0-0
- Aug 21 · v FC Lahti (H)1-2
FC Lahti
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 18 · v FF Jaro (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Ilves (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · v IFK Mariehamn (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at VPS (A)1-0
- Aug 21 · at SJK (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | SJK | FC Lahti |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.