Pro League (Belgium) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:45 · SK Beveren vs Lommel SK
Likeliest: SK Beveren win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SK Beveren52%52%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Lommel SK23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SK Beveren
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at KV Kortrijk (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Sint-Truidense VV (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · v Oud-Heverlee Leuven (H)3-0
- Aug 28 · at KRC Genk (A)0-4
- Aug 22 · at SV Zulte Waregem (A)0-4
Lommel SK
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 26 · at KV Diksmuide Oostende (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v KV Mechelen (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · at Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (A)0-5
- Sep 4 · v Club Brugge KV (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Cercle Brugge (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | SK Beveren | Lommel SK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.